AI Brief / Topic
机器学习
机器学习核心方向：监督/无监督/自监督学习、深度学习架构、训练方法、泛化理论与模型评估。
- 公开内容
- 36
- 最近更新
- 2026/8/12
最近内容
按发布日期倒序arXiv / 2026/8/13
Recent work on distillation transfers the capabilities of large models to smaller ones often by updating the latter's parameters, through teacher forcing, on-policy distillation, and related training-time methods. In this paper, we ask whether such transfer can instead occur at test time. We study strong-to-weak scaffolding: whether a stronger builder model can construct inference-time harnesses that help a weaker target model solve tasks more reliably without any parameter updates. Using four representative Theory-of-Mind benchmarks, each builder model uses 5% of the data as a validation set to iteratively refine its harness over multiple rounds, after which the finalized harness is evaluated on the full test set. Empirically, this form of test-time capability transfer is highly effective, nearly doubling average target-model performance from 0.49 to 0.91. Our analysis shows that the gains come primarily from offloading unstable model reasoning into deterministic code, benchmark-specific routing, and strict answer-format enforcement, rather than from encouraging the target model to reason more extensively or sample more broadly. We further find that builder-model reasoning effort improves harness quality monotonically, platform effects are modest relative to the builder model's own capability, and weaker target models receive the largest gains. These results suggest that inference-time harness design is an important complement to conventional training-time distillation, enabling strong models to transfer cognitive structure to weaker models without retraining.
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- arXiv 2608.12307
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Safe offline RL typically assumes access to dense per-step cost annotations, but in practice supervisors provide only trajectory-level stop-feedback: a binary signal at the first unsafe transition, with no per-step attribution. We frame this as a temporal credit assignment problem and propose the Redistribution-based Cost Inference (RCI) framework, which converts sparse stop-feedback into dense per-step costs via return decomposition, then trains a constrained offline policy on the augmented dataset. We show that return-equivalent redistribution preserves the feasible policy set and the optimal Lagrangian in a CMDP, establishing that the transformation is lossless in theory while yielding better-conditioned cost critic learning in practice. Experiments on highway driving and robotic manipulation demonstrate substantially lower violation rates than sparse and classifier-based baselines, with robustness to heterogeneous dataset compositions and label noise.
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- arXiv 2608.12306
arXiv / 2026/8/13
We present a formal process to enable non-experts to instantiate and iterate on human-aligned reward functions, i.e. reward functions that adhere to a given preference ordering over trajectories. Given a task described in natural language, our process produces a linear reward function in three steps: distill the task's objectives into a set of fundamental objectives and derive measurable outcome variables that capture those fundamental objectives, select a causally representative subset of outcome variables as the reward terms, and fit weights to those reward terms via preference elicitation. Our contributions describe the first step and formalize the latter two steps. The first is a guided workflow for deriving outcome variables. The second is a reduction of reward term selection to minimum-cost partial cover on a causal DAG, solved in polynomial time via max-flow. The third is a geometric framing of weight fitting as a convex feasibility problem iteratively narrowed by preference queries, solved by existing separation oracle methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reward-design method that maintains a deterministically conflict-free feasible weight region, narrowed to a desired tolerance via a separation oracle with O(n log κ) preference queries.
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- arXiv 2608.12302
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Global weather reanalyses and forecasts resolve the evolving atmospheric state on coarse grids, but site-specific applications require predictions at arbitrary locations where near-surface conditions also depend on unresolved terrain and land-surface properties. Existing probabilistic downscalers address this gap using hand-crafted topographic descriptors. We ask instead whether Earth observation foundation models can provide transferable sub-grid surface representations for probabilistic weather downscaling.
We augment a convolutional conditional neural process that downscales coarse ERA5 reanalysis fields at ~25 km resolution with a learned local surface descriptor, obtained by compressing a patch of TESSERA embeddings at 10 m resolution. Although these embeddings summarise surface conditions over annual timescales, they improve downscaling of instantaneous 2 m temperature and 10 m wind speed by encoding persistent surface properties that capture a location's departure from the coarse-grid atmospheric state. Across five climatically diverse regions, the embedding improves point and probabilistic skill at stations held out in both space and time, overall improving CRPS skill by 11.5% for 2 m temperature and 6.2% for 10 m wind speed. We further analyse how its contribution differs by variable, finding that topography explains more of temperature's sub-grid structure, while TESSERA provides additional surface information for wind speed.
These improvements persist when the coarse input is changed from ERA5 to forecasts from the Aurora AI forecasting model, and when predicting at newly deployed stations with no regional history. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that long-timescale Earth-observation embeddings can support short-timescale weather downscaling where sub-grid departures are systematically structured by persistent surface properties.
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- arXiv 2608.12271
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Financial forecasting models are typically developed in full precision, yet production deployment often requires low-precision inference to reduce memory and computational cost. Post-training quantization (PTQ) enables such deployment without retraining. However, reliable activation quantization requires calibration: activation ranges are estimated from historical data before deployment and then remain fixed during future inference. The importance of this deployment choice for financial forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a systematic study of activation calibration for PTQ in cross-sectional volatility forecasting on the S&P 500. Our evaluation covers seven representative neural architectures, eight walk-forward test years (2018-2025), and 560 trained models. We find that activation calibration has little effect at 8 bits but becomes the primary determinant of predictive performance at 4 bits. Under default absolute-maximum (abs-max) calibration, static 4-bit quantization of both weights and activations removes 11-62% of the full-precision mean information coefficient in affected architectures. Replacing abs-max with percentile calibration recovers 53-94% of this degradation in the four most affected architectures. The preferred activation range also varies across market periods. Narrow ranges improve resolution under typical market conditions but lose part of their advantage when test-period market dispersion exceeds the calibration history. These findings show that activation calibration is a first-class deployment decision for reliable 4-bit PTQ in financial forecasting. When substantial degradation remains, 8-bit activations or weight-only 4-bit quantization provide more robust deployment choices.
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- arXiv 2608.12259
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Multi-agent reinforcement learning for human-AI interaction typically relies on a single large language model to simulate user behavior. We show that this approach systematically fails to generalize, and trace the failure to simulator collapse: because the simulator LLM is mode-collapsed, an LLM policy trained against it overfits to narrow strategies that exploit the simulator's dominant mode, and such a policy transfers poorly to unseen simulators and real users. We formalize this collapse theoretically and propose two complementary solutions, one at inference time and one at training time. The inference-time solution, Verbalized Sampling, broadens the simulator's behavior by sampling from a verbalized response distribution, reducing mode collapse. The training-time solution, Co-Training, jointly optimizes the policy against a population of trainable simulators, preventing it from overfitting to any single simulator's mode. We validate both solutions on three multi-turn benchmarks: Persuasion for Good, $τ^2$-bench, and CooperBench. Verbalized Sampling improves held-out success by up to 9% over single-simulator RL, and Co-Training pushes gains further to 14%; the human study shows similar gain on real users. Both solutions preserve the policy diversity that collapses under single-simulator RL. To support further work in this direction, we release SCOPE, an open-source framework for Population Co-Training multi-agent RL. More broadly, our results suggest that the diversity of the training environment, not only the policy, is critical to the generalization of multi-turn RL to real-world deployment.
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- arXiv 2608.12253
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling walk-forward evaluation framework in which information, model capacity, hyperparameter tuning, and random seeds are matched across architectures. We propose RG-ResMoE, a regime-gated residual mixture-of-experts architecture in which regime information is used only for expert routing rather than for direct forecasting. The base predictor models volatility from stock features, while a gating network uses regime state variables to route residual corrections. RG-ResMoE consistently outperforms a capacity-matched MLP in both forecasting accuracy and training stability in the main U.S. study. Similar gains are observed on an independent Japanese panel. The integration pathway is decisive: appending the same regime variables directly to the forecasting input degrades both predictive performance and training stability, whereas restricting them to the routing gate improves accuracy and Value-at-Risk calibration. Hard routing consistently underperforms soft routing. The results suggest that, in compact neural volatility forecasting models, the primary value of mixture-of-experts models lies less in increasing model capacity than in controlling how nonstationary regime information influences prediction.
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- arXiv 2608.12251
arXiv / 2026/8/13
We study adversarial combinatorial bandits with $m$-set actions, where at each round the learner selects $m$ out of $d$ items and observes only the aggregate loss of the selected items. The resulting action set contains $K=\binom{d}{m}$ elements and can therefore be exponentially large. Nevertheless, the loss of every action is determined by the same $d$-dimensional vector of item losses. We propose a computationally efficient algorithm that exploits this structure without explicitly enumerating the action set. Against adaptive non-anticipating adversaries, it guarantees, with probability at least $1-δ$, regret against the best fixed action of \[
R_T =
O\left(\sqrt{dT\log(K/δ)}\right). \] This matches the high-probability regret bound of the finite-action EXP3-KW algorithm of Zimmert and Lattimore, whose direct implementation may require exponential space. Our algorithm instead represents each sampling distribution with $d$ parameters and runs in polynomial time without enumerating the action set. Thus, it resolves the open problem posed by Maiti et al.
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- arXiv 2608.12231
arXiv / 2026/8/13
Treating patients with combinations of drugs reduces the risk of resistance to any individual drug. Finding effective combinations is difficult because the large search space makes combinatorial screens prohibitively expensive, time consuming, and often technically infeasible. Predictive models can fill this gap, yet existing methods typically require molecular profiling of each sample and per-cohort training, limiting their applicability when time and tissue are scarce. To address this challenge, we introduce ScreenShot, a hierarchical transformer pretrained on 40 drug screening datasets covering 3,700 drugs and 6,000 biological samples, whose architecture mirrors the nested structure of screening data. Given a few-shot context of observations from a new patient, ScreenShot predicts the response of the sample to combination therapies through in-context learning, operating directly on functional measurements with no fine-tuning and no molecular profiling. On four held-out datasets, ScreenShot outperforms all baselines in both prediction accuracy and identification of selectively effective treatments. ScreenShot's internal representations are directly useful for experimental design: we use them to drive a weighted k-means++ active learning strategy that selects which experiments to run, achieving the same hit detection as uniform screening with a third of the budget. Source code and interactive dashboard: https://github.com/tansey-lab/screenshot.
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- arXiv 2608.12219
arXiv / 2026/8/12
Recent research in machine and deep learning has shown the potential of learningbased motion planning approaches to improve the driving behavior of automated vehicles, especially in complex environments. However, their complex nature and lack of transparency can hinder explainability and trustworthiness and complicate safety assurance. Motivated by these challenges, we propose a hybrid planning architecture that combines the advantages of machine learning with the verifiability and the determinism of classical approaches. Specifically, we developed a deep neural network to interpret complex traffic scenes and propose driving behavior, while an optimization-based supervision layer validates this proposal and enforces explicit drivability and safety constraints. We evaluate the learned planner's driving behavior in open-loop studies on real-world urban data, discuss system integration aspects for stable closed-loop operation, and report results from real-world deployment on our research vehicle karl..
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- arXiv 2608.12198
arXiv / 2026/8/12
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) enhance nonlinear function approximation by replacing scalar weights with learnable univariate functions. However, assigning an independent function to every connection results in substantial parameter redundancy, limiting their scalability and efficiency. To reduce this redundancy, we introduce \textbf{HY}perbolic \textbf{D}ynamic \textbf{R}epresentation \textbf{A}rchitecture (HYDRA), a parameter-efficient hyperbolic extension of KAN that combines spline-based functional learning with representations in the Poincaré ball. HYDRA maps vector-valued inputs into a bounded hyperbolic latent space, performs KAN-style updates in tangent space, and employs a low-rank prototype block to share functional transformations across hidden dimensions. The resulting hyperbolic representations provide a structured radial coordinate for interpretation, while radius control improves training stability by preventing boundary saturation. Extensive experiments across eight benchmark datasets demonstrate that HYDRA consistently achieves competitive or superior predictive performance while improving parameter efficiency and representation interpretability.
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- arXiv 2608.12194
arXiv / 2026/8/12
Foundation models for protein structure prediction remain unreliable on certain targets. External oracles can flag and correct these failures, but biological oracles are expensive, making oracle budget a critical constraint. Existing guidance methods, such as FK-steering, DPO, and Best K-of-N sampling, differ in how they spend this budget, yet no systematic comparison exists to guide method selection. To bridge this gap, we benchmark these methods alongside the recently proposed Optimisation Over Outputs (O3), which applies off-the-shelf optimisers within a generative model's latent subspace. We extend the usage of O3 to protein structure prediction models. Overall, our work provides the first practical reference for oracle budget-aware guidance. Our evaluation on two protein targets, calmodulin (1CLL) and E. coli aspartate transcarbamoylase (9EEH), reveals that no single method consistently dominates across all budgets and oracles. Specifically, O3 proves most effective at low oracle budgets, while FK-steering and DPO demonstrate improved performance as the budget increases. We distil these findings into actionable recommendations for practitioners operating under real-world oracle-budget constraints.
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- arXiv 2608.12192